Private Markets Are on Track for USD 26.7 Trillion — and Asia Is Central to That Story

A single forecast number is reshaping capital allocation conversations across Singapore, Hong Kong, and Tokyo boardrooms: USD 26.7 trillion. That is the projected size of global private markets by 2030, according to research tracking institutional flows into private equity, private credit, infrastructure, real assets, and secondaries. Even accounting for a meaningful deceleration in growth rates compared with the 2015–2022 surge, the asset class will have roughly doubled in a decade. For Asian family offices and private banks managing multi-generational wealth, the question is no longer whether to allocate to private markets — it is how to size, sequence, and diversify that allocation as return assumptions are recalibrated.

The reason this matters personally to any allocator reading this brief is straightforward. Return compression in public equities, persistent volatility in listed real estate, and narrowing spreads in investment-grade fixed income have left a structural gap that only illiquid premium can fill. Private markets have historically delivered a 300–400 basis point illiquidity premium over comparable public benchmarks. As that premium resets to a more modest 150–250 basis points in a higher-rate environment, portfolio construction discipline becomes the differentiator — and Asia-Pacific investors are increasingly sophisticated enough to exploit it.

Why Returns Are Resetting and What the New Baseline Looks Like

The era of near-zero interest rates turbocharged private equity and venture returns through multiple expansion rather than operational value creation. A company bought at 10x EBITDA in 2018 could be sold at 14x in 2021 simply because discount rates collapsed. That arithmetic has reversed. With the US Federal Reserve holding rates above 5% through most of 2024 and the Bank of Japan finally normalising policy, the cost of leverage has risen materially. Buyout funds that relied on 6–7x debt multiples are now underwriting deals at 4–5x, compressing equity returns unless operational improvements compensate.

Data from Preqin and McKinsey's Global Private Markets Report both point to median buyout net IRRs settling in the 14–17% range for 2023 and 2024 vintages, down from the 20–24% peaks seen in 2017–2019. Private credit, however, has moved in the opposite direction: direct lending funds are generating gross yields of 11–13% in senior secured positions, a level not seen since the post-GFC period. Infrastructure debt is similarly attractive, with core-plus strategies targeting 9–11% net returns. The mix shift within private markets — away from pure buyout and toward credit and real assets — is one of the defining allocation trends of the current cycle.

"Private markets will reach USD 26.7 trillion by 2030 even as return assumptions reset — the growth engine is shifting from buyout multiple expansion to private credit yield and infrastructure cash flow."

Secondaries Market Expansion Opens a New Entry Point for Asian LPs

significant structural developments underpinning the USD 26.7 trillion forecast is the rapid maturation of the secondaries market. Global secondary transaction volume hit approximately USD 114 billion in 2023, up from USD 103 billion in 2022, with GP-led continuation vehicles accounting for roughly 45% of deal flow. Firms such as Lexington Partners, Ardian, and Harbour Vest have scaled dedicated secondaries vehicles exceeding USD 20 billion each, and new entrants from the Asia-Pacific region — including a growing cohort of Singapore-based multi-family offices — are participating as both sellers and buyers.

For Asian investors who missed the primary fund commitments of top-quartile managers during 2015–2020, secondaries now offer a credible back-door entry. Discount rates on secondary purchases of mature buyout portfolios ranged from 85 to 92 cents on the dollar through most of 2023, meaning buyers could acquire seasoned, de-risked portfolios at meaningful discounts to NAV. The J-curve effect — the early period of negative returns that deters many first-time LP commitments — is largely eliminated in secondary purchases, which is particularly attractive for family offices deploying capital for the first time into private equity. Singapore's Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has also streamlined the Variable Capital Company (VCC) structure to facilitate secondary fund structures domiciled locally, reducing operational friction for regional managers.

How Asian Allocators Are Positioning Across the Private Markets Spectrum

Conversations with private bankers at DBS Private Bank, UBS Wealth Management Asia, and Julius Baer's Singapore office consistently surface a common portfolio evolution: clients who began with a 5–8% private markets allocation three years ago are now targeting 15–20%, with the increment split between private credit, infrastructure, and — increasingly — real assets including timberland, farmland, and tangible collectibles. The latter category is where alternative assets such as whisky casks, fine wine, and rare watches intersect with institutional allocation logic.

The breakdown of how sophisticated Asian family offices are currently structuring private market exposure looks broadly as follows:

1. Private equity buyout (mid-market focus): 35–40% of private markets sleeve, with preference for Southeast Asian and Indian growth equity over mega-cap Western buyout.
2. Private credit and direct lending: 25–30%, targeting senior secured positions in USD-denominated deals with 11–13% gross yield.
3. Infrastructure and real assets: 15–20%, including renewable energy, logistics, and data centre debt in the Asia-Pacific corridor.
4. Secondaries: 10–15%, used tactically to manage vintage diversification and reduce J-curve exposure.
5. Tangible and collectible real assets: 5–10%, encompassing whisky casks, fine wine, classic cars, and art — valued for low correlation to financial markets and strong USD-denominated appreciation data.

The tangible asset sleeve, while modest in percentage terms, has delivered some of the most consistent risk-adjusted returns across the private markets universe over the past decade. The Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index recorded a 137% appreciation in rare whisky over the ten years to 2023, outperforming classic cars (46%), fine wine (146%), and art (64%) over the same period. For a Hong Kong or Singapore family office managing USD 200–500 million, a 5% allocation translates to USD 10–25 million in tangible assets — a meaningful position that warrants institutional-grade due diligence.

Frequently Asked Questions

How large will private markets be by 2030?

Global private markets assets under management are forecast to reach USD 26.7 trillion by 2030, up from approximately USD 13–14 trillion in 2022. Growth is expected to decelerate compared with the prior decade but remain structurally positive, driven by institutional adoption, retail democratisation via evergreen fund structures, and expansion in private credit and infrastructure.

Why are private market returns resetting lower?

The return reset reflects the end of the zero-interest-rate era. Higher base rates have increased the cost of leverage, reduced multiple expansion opportunities in buyout, and compressed venture capital exit valuations. Median buyout net IRRs have declined from 20–24% for 2017–2019 vintages to an estimated 14–17% for 2023–2024 vintages. Private credit is a notable exception, with direct lending yields rising to 11–13% gross.

What is the secondaries market and why does it matter to Asian investors?

The secondaries market involves the purchase and sale of existing private fund interests and direct stakes before the fund's natural end of life. For Asian investors, it offers access to top-quartile fund managers without the multi-year waitlist of primary commitments, reduced J-curve risk, and the ability to buy at discounts to NAV. Secondary transaction volume reached approximately USD 114 billion globally in 2023.

How are family offices in Singapore and Hong Kong allocating to private markets?

Leading family offices in Singapore and Hong Kong are targeting 15–20% total private markets allocations, split across private equity, private credit, infrastructure, secondaries, and tangible real assets. Singapore's VCC structure, supported by MAS, has made it easier to domicile and manage these allocations locally. Private bankers at DBS, UBS, and Julius Baer report growing demand for structured private credit and real asset products.

Where do tangible assets like whisky casks fit in a private markets allocation?

Tangible assets including whisky casks, fine wine, and rare watches occupy the real assets sleeve of a private markets portfolio, typically 5–10% of the total private allocation. They offer low correlation to financial markets, USD-denominated appreciation, and physical scarcity. The Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index recorded a 137% appreciation in rare whisky over the decade to 2023, making it one of the stronger-performing tangible asset classes on a risk-adjusted basis.

What to Watch: Key Signals for Asia-Pacific Private Markets in 2025–2026

Several catalysts will determine whether the USD 26.7 trillion forecast is met on schedule or revised upward. First, watch the pace of retail democratisation: Blackstone's BREIT and BCRED vehicles have demonstrated that semi-liquid evergreen structures can attract USD 50–100 billion from high-net-worth investors, and Asian wealth managers are now building equivalent distribution pipelines. Second, monitor MAS and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) for further regulatory clarity on retail access to private fund products — both regulators have signalled openness to expanding the eligible investor base. Third, track the India and Southeast Asia private equity pipeline: deal volume in India reached USD 39 billion in 2023, and ASEAN mid-market buyout activity is accelerating as regional champions seek growth capital.

For allocators who have not yet reviewed their private markets sleeve in light of the return reset, the immediate action is to stress-test existing commitments against a 15–17% net IRR assumption rather than the 20%+ that underpinned many original investment committee approvals. Those who find a gap should consider rebalancing toward private credit and real assets — including tangible alternatives — where the current yield environment is most favourable. The USD 26.7 trillion market will be built one disciplined allocation at a time, and Asia-Pacific investors are increasingly positioned to capture a disproportionate share of that value creation.

Source: Whisky Bulletin coverage of cask investment on Whisky Bulletin.

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