Private Markets Growth Trajectory and What It Means for Asian Allocators

Private markets are on course to reach USD 26.7 trillion in assets under management by 2030, according to projections that signal a structural recalibration rather than a slowdown story. For family offices in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Tokyo, this number is not an abstraction — it represents a tectonic shift in where institutional-grade returns will be generated over the next five years. The asset class is maturing, and the allocation window for Asian investors to position ahead of the curve is narrowing. Understanding the mechanics behind this growth — and where the secondary market fits in — is now a baseline competency for any serious alternatives allocator in the region.

The growth rate is expected to moderate compared to the explosive expansion seen between 2015 and 2022, when private markets roughly doubled in size. But moderation is not contraction. Even at a more measured pace, reaching USD 26.7 trillion from roughly USD 13 trillion in 2022 implies a compound annual growth rate in the high single digits — a trajectory that continues to outpace public market AUM growth in most categories. For Asian private banks and multi-family offices managing intergenerational wealth, the question is no longer whether to allocate to private markets, but how to access them efficiently and at what cost of illiquidity.

Why Returns Are Resetting — and Why That Is Not a Red Flag

The "returns reset" narrative deserves more nuance than it typically receives. During the low-rate era of 2010–2021, private equity and private credit benefited from multiple expansion and cheap leverage. Those tailwinds have reversed. Buyout funds that relied on financial engineering rather than operational value creation are now delivering vintage-year returns in the low-to-mid teens rather than the 20%-plus figures that defined the prior decade. This is a normalisation, not a collapse, and sophisticated allocators are adjusting benchmarks accordingly.

Private credit is arguably the most interesting reset story. As bank lending tightened post-2022, direct lending funds stepped into the gap. According to Preqin data, private credit AUM stood at approximately USD 1.7 trillion in 2023 and is forecast to reach USD 2.8 trillion by 2028. Asian borrowers — particularly mid-market companies in Southeast Asia and India — are increasingly tapping offshore private credit vehicles, creating origination pipelines for funds domiciled in Singapore and managed under MAS oversight. The Monetary Authority of Singapore has been deliberate in building out the Variable Capital Company framework precisely to capture this flow. For allocators, private credit now offers a credible alternative to fixed income with materially better risk-adjusted spreads, provided manager selection is rigorous.

"Private markets reaching USD 26.7 trillion by 2030 is not a growth story — it is a maturation story. The allocators who thrive will be those who understand secondaries, co-investments, and vintage diversification, not just flagship fund commitments."

The Secondary Market: The Most Underutilised Tool for Asian Family Offices

Secondaries have emerged as compelling structural opportunities within private markets, and Asian family offices remain meaningfully underexposed to this segment. The global secondary market transacted approximately USD 114 billion in 2023, up from USD 108 billion in 2022, with GP-led transactions — continuation vehicles and single-asset deals — now accounting for nearly half of all volume. Managers such as Lexington Partners, Ardian, and Coller Capital have built dedicated secondary strategies that offer investors vintage diversification, accelerated J-curve mitigation, and entry at discounts to net asset value.

For Asian investors, the secondary market solves a specific problem: access. Flagship funds from top-quartile managers — KKR, Blackstone, CVC Capital Partners — are typically oversubscribed and closed to new LPs. The secondary market provides a legitimate back-door entry point, often at discounts of 10–20% to NAV depending on asset quality and liquidity conditions. Singapore-based multi-family offices with AUM above USD 500 million are increasingly allocating 15–20% of their private markets sleeve to secondary strategies, a figure that was closer to 5% as recently as 2019. This shift reflects both growing sophistication and the practical reality that primary fund access is increasingly rationed.

The GP-led secondary segment is particularly relevant for Asian allocators because it often involves high-quality assets that a fund manager wishes to hold beyond the traditional ten-year fund life. Rather than forcing a sale into a weak exit environment, the GP creates a continuation vehicle, allowing existing LPs to roll over and new investors to enter. This structure has been used extensively in technology, healthcare, and infrastructure — sectors where Asian family offices already have strong conviction.

Comparing Private Market Sub-Asset Classes for Asian Portfolio Construction

Not all private market exposure is equivalent, and the returns reset affects sub-asset classes differently. The following comparison is relevant for allocators building or rebalancing a private markets sleeve within a broader alternatives portfolio:

1. Private Equity Buyout: Net IRR expectations have normalised to 12–16% for top-quartile managers. Leverage costs have compressed margins, but operational value creation strategies are outperforming. Asia-Pacific buyout activity, led by markets in Japan, India, and Australia, remains robust with deal volume holding above USD 90 billion annually.
2. Private Credit / Direct Lending: Yield-to-maturity on senior secured direct loans in Asia ranges from 9–13% depending on jurisdiction and borrower profile. MAS-regulated fund structures have made this accessible to accredited investors in Singapore with minimum tickets as low as USD 250,000 in some vehicles.
3. Infrastructure: Core infrastructure continues to deliver 8–11% unlevered returns with inflation linkage. The Asia-Pacific energy transition pipeline — solar, grid storage, data centres — is generating significant deal flow for infrastructure allocators through 2030.
4. Venture Capital: The most affected by the reset. Median VC fund returns have compressed sharply as exit markets tightened. Selective exposure to Southeast Asia and India early-stage funds remains justified for long-horizon family offices, but position sizing should be conservative at 5–8% of the private markets sleeve.
5. Real Assets and Tangible Alternatives: Whisky casks, fine wine, rare art, and classic cars are increasingly being evaluated alongside private real estate within the real assets bucket. Scottish whisky cask indices have delivered annualised appreciation of approximately 10–15% over the past decade, with near-zero correlation to public equity markets — a diversification property that resonates strongly with Asian family offices seeking non-correlated stores of value.

Regulatory and Structural Tailwinds Across Asia-Pacific

Regulatory infrastructure across the region is actively enabling greater private market participation. Singapore's Variable Capital Company structure, launched in 2020, has attracted over 1,000 fund registrations as of 2024, many of them private equity and private credit vehicles targeting Asian deal flow. Hong Kong's Limited Partnership Fund regime, introduced in 2020, similarly brought offshore private fund structures onshore, reducing friction for family offices domiciled in the city. Both the MAS and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong have signalled continued support for expanding accredited investor access to private market products, including through digital distribution platforms.

Japan represents a distinct opportunity. The Financial Services Agency has been progressively relaxing constraints on alternative allocations for domestic institutional investors, and the Government Pension Investment Fund — the world's largest pension fund at approximately USD 1.5 trillion — has been increasing its alternatives allocation. This creates a significant co-investment and fund-of-funds opportunity for regional managers who can provide Japanese LPs with credible private market exposure. Thai and Indonesian sovereign wealth vehicles are similarly increasing alternatives allocations, with private credit and infrastructure receiving the largest incremental commitments.

What to Watch: Key Developments Through 2026

Asian allocators should monitor the following developments as private markets evolve toward the 2030 target:

• Secondary market discount tightening: As more capital chases secondary deals, average discounts to NAV are compressing. Allocators who move quickly on GP-led secondaries in 2025–2026 are likely to capture better entry pricing than those who wait.
• MAS consultation on retail private market access: Singapore regulators are examining frameworks that would allow a broader investor base — beyond accredited investors — to access private market products via regulated platforms. A policy announcement is possible by late 2025.
• Vintage year selection: Funds raised in 2023–2025, deploying into a higher-rate, lower-multiple environment, are historically positioned to deliver stronger returns than peak-vintage funds from 2020–2021. Asian allocators committing capital now are buying into what many managers describe as a favourable entry vintage.
• Tangible alternative assets as a private markets complement: The convergence of private markets sophistication and collectible asset investing is accelerating. Scottish whisky casks, in particular, are being evaluated by Singapore and Hong Kong family offices as a real asset allocation with a verifiable appreciation track record and low minimum commitment thresholds relative to private equity.

For Asian family offices and private banking clients reviewing their 2025 allocation strategy, the actionable step is not simply to increase private market exposure in aggregate — it is to audit the sub-asset class mix, ensure secondary market access is built into the sleeve, and evaluate whether tangible real assets can serve as a lower-correlation complement to the core private equity and private credit positions. The USD 26.7 trillion endpoint matters less than the allocation decisions made in the next twelve months, when vintage positioning and entry pricing will define returns for the rest of the decade.

Source: Whisky Bulletin coverage of cask investment on Whisky Bulletin.

💼 Exploring alternative asset allocation? Speak to Whisky Cask Club — Singapore's leading specialists in Scottish whisky cask investment.

Frequently Asked Questions

How large are private markets expected to be by 2030?

Private markets are projected to reach USD 26.7 trillion in assets under management by 2030, roughly doubling from approximately USD 13 trillion in 2022. Growth is expected to continue at a high single-digit CAGR, driven by private credit expansion, infrastructure investment, and secondary market activity.

What is driving secondary market growth in private equity?

Secondary market growth is being driven by two forces: LP-led sales from investors seeking liquidity before fund maturity, and GP-led continuation vehicles where managers roll quality assets beyond the standard fund life. Global secondary transaction volume reached approximately USD 114 billion in 2023, with GP-led deals now accounting for close to half of all activity.

How are Asian family offices accessing private markets in 2025?

Asian family offices are primarily accessing private markets through direct LP commitments to regional and global funds, co-investment alongside GPs, and increasingly through secondary market purchases. Singapore's VCC framework and Hong Kong's LPF regime have made it structurally easier to hold and manage these exposures onshore.

Why are private market returns resetting and what should allocators expect?

Returns are resetting because the low-rate, high-multiple environment that inflated IRRs from 2012–2021 has reversed. Top-quartile buyout funds now target net IRRs of 12–16% rather than 20%-plus. This is a normalisation to long-run historical averages, not a structural breakdown, and funds deploying capital in 2023–2025 are entering at more attractive valuations.

How do tangible alternative assets like whisky casks fit into a private markets allocation?

Tangible alternatives such as Scottish whisky casks, fine wine, and rare collectibles are increasingly evaluated as real asset complements to private equity and private credit. Whisky cask indices have delivered approximately 10–15% annualised appreciation over the past decade with near-zero correlation to public markets, making them relevant for Asian family offices seeking diversification within a broader alternatives sleeve.